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Trump’s Stated Immigration Policy and Potential Second Order Effects

  • President-Elect Donald Trump made a promise during his campaing to deport millions of undocumented (illegal) immigrants
  • It is estimated that more than 11 million undocumented (illegal) immigrants live in the United States
  • Precisely how many immigrants Donald Trump intends to deport is unknown (perhaps to him as well)
  • It is estimated it would cost roughly $1 trillion over a decade, or $88B per year to deport all illegal immigrants from the United States
  • Statistically, undocumented immigrants commit crime at lower rates than natural born US Citizens
  • Here is what Donald Trump has said to date:
    • He will “seal” the border and launch “the largest deportation program in American history,” using the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 — last used during World War II.
    • Trump referred to undocumented immigrants as “animals” and “not human” while speaking about crimes committed by undocumented immigrants at a speech in Michigan in April 2024
    • In response to the cost of mass deportation, in November, 2024 he stated, “It’s not a question of a price tag. It’s not — really, we have no choice”
  • Illegal immigrants are often willing to accept lower paying jobs (eg construction) than Americans.

Questions to consider:

  1. If Trump follows through on his promise of mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, how do you expect that will affect you personally, whether directly or indirectly?
  2. Do you agree with Trump’s statement that immigrants are not human?
  3. How do you hope the current administration handles the large and accelerating border crossing of undocumented immigrants into the United States?

Joelwesleythomas

One response to “Trump’s Stated Immigration Policy and Potential Second Order Effects”

  1. Jay C Avatar
    Jay C

    When I think about the immigration issue, I believe there is one perspective we all share: the immigration system is broken and needs to be fixed. While I’m not sure that both sides would acknowledge that immigrants play a critical role in the economy, it is hard to deny that there are many immigrants (both legal and illegal) doing important low-skilll/low-wage all over the country, from lawn care to construction to cleaning of homes, businesses, and other facilities to working in fields and factories. Not to mention that immigrants are also doctors, nurses and scientists among other highly-skilled professions.

    It is fair to ask if illegal immigrants are taking low-skilll/low-wage jobs from natural born citizens. It does seem as if business (like restaurants) are chronically understaffed, signifying a lack of low-skilled labor, not a lack of jobs. But even if you presume the shortage is jobs and not labor, It is unclear whether or not many Americans really want to do this type of work. So let’s imagine a scenario in which this labor force is eliminated. It is fair to assume they are getting paid not more than minimum wage, $7.25/hour, and maybe less. I think it is fair to assume that it would take more than minimum wage to get many Americans to take up these jobs. Would it take $14.50/hr (double the minimum wage) or even more? The bottom line is that we have to presume that a country which deports illegal immigrants and significantly reduces immigration is going to have to deal with higher prices, i.e. inflation. A platform that prioritizes inflation reduction cannot also prioritize deportation and reducing immigration. The two goals inherently contradict.

    Another stated key issue of concern, particularly on the new right, explicitly raised by JD Vance, is the low birth rate leading to population shrinkage. While I contend that it may be possible to build a vibrant economy with a shrinking population, it is fair to presume that the current system of consumerism and social security does require a growing population. With so many people around the world interested in coming to America, immigration is the perfect solution to the problem of a shrinking population. The only other solutions are either a) a massive increase in the social welfare state to make raising children easier for people or b) a forced pregnancy and birth program. 

    So if you support stable/lower prices and increasing population, immigration is your perfect solution, in fact, probably your only solution.

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